Sunday, 26 November 2017

We could have saved Bill-Payers £31 billion from the cost of HPC !

We could have saved Bill-Payers £31 billion from the cost of HPC !


Copied this leaked 'newsflash' from the webpage of 'Frank A Kenuce Energy Investments':
Rumours abound around the corridors of the BEIS.

Greg Clark asked – How come Moray East Offshore Windfarm (MEOW), which will only generate electricity for a third of the time, will be built miles out at sea, has to wait for calm seas to get repairs done and only lasts for 25 years, can manage to sell their electricity for £57.50/MWh for the first 15 years?

Whereas, Hinkley Point C (HPC) generates 90% of the time, is being built in a very pleasant part of the Country, has a complete infrastructure for O & M (Operation & Maintenance), carries on generating for 60 years, but still ‘needs’ paying  £92.50/MWh for its first 35 years!
Of course, he’ll never tell us the answers he got back, because the Coalition Government’s negotiator – the Tory appointed Ed Davey, had every drop of blood squeezed out of him by pro-negotiator Vincent De Rivaz.

Davey, caught between a rock and a hard place and in need of progression towards meeting mandatory carbon targets, knew HPC would give him 7% of low-carbon electricity needs at one fell swoop. So it was £92.50/MWh or walk-away nothing; nothing was not an option!
But it’s said that the coincidence of HPC costing £18,000 million and MEOW £1,800 million made him demand some cost and earnings figures for 10x MEOWs, compared to HPC  - with HPC getting the £57.50/MWh CfD rate, instead of £92.50.

It had been pointed out to him wind turbine generation degrades by about 1.6% p.a.. 
‘Powering 950,000 homes’ [from MEOW’s website], drops to 783,000 homes after 15 years and down to 666,000 homes by the end of its 25 year lifespan. This has the effect of reducing income by about 22%.
To keep it simple, he just wanted the main cost factors – 'O & M' and 'DECOMMISSIONING' – deducting from the earnings. The O & M figures are very low for nuclear - £16.14/MWh, whereas for offshore wind it rises to £26.09/MWh. However, HPC has a massive £7,300 million decommissioning/waste handling and storage cost (40% of capital cost), whereas offshore wind decommissioning cost is only 2.5% of capital cost.
HPC Earnings:
At £57.50/MWh for 35 years, £50,773 million.
At (today’s) £42.00/MWh for 25 years, £26,490 million.
Total: £77,263 million.

HPC Costs:
O & M at £16.14/MWh, £24,840 million.
Decommissioning/ Waste Handling and Storage £7,300 million.
Total: £32,140 million.

HPC 'Earnings – Costs': £45,123 million.
10 x MEOW Earnings:
At £57.50/MWh for 15 years, £21,311 million.
At (today’s) £42.00/MWh, £9,940 million.
Total: £31,251 million.

10 x MEOW Costs:
O & M at £26.09/MWh, £15,844 million.
Decommissioning at 2.5% of capital cost, £450 million.
Total: £16,294 million

10 x MEOW 'Earnings – Costs': £14,957 million.

At a CfD rate of £57.50/MWh, HPC’s 'Earnings – Costs' is 3X as much as the figure for the same amount of money invested in offshore wind.

At £92.50/MWh instead of £57.50/MWh for 35 years, the poor old bill-payers, will be forking out £76,028 million'!! 'Donating’ a top up to HPC's 'JACKPOT' of:

HPC 'Earnings – Costs': £76,028 -£45,123 million = +£30,905 million.

£31 Billion, Give or Take!!!


Sunday, 27 August 2017

24/7 electricity or intermittent electricity at 2.25X the Cost - A Real Head-Scratcher!

Ever year, a single 220 MW Rolls-Royce Small Modular Reactor [SMR] will supply 24/7, low-carbon electricity to 410,431 UK homes from an 0.08 sq km site.

Every year, the 215 wind turbines of the 539 MW Whitelee Onshore Wind Farm will deliver intermittent electricity to 298,837 UK homes from a 78 sq km site on ancient peat bog.

The capacity of Whitelee would have to increase by 37.3% to supply the same number of homes as a 220 MW SMR. That would take the number of turbines up to 295, with a rating of 740 MW on a site expanded to 107 sq km.

Best Estimate of SMR Overnight Cost to Compare to the Overnight Cost of Onshore Wind Farms:

£5,000/kWe is 'Best Fit' for a Rolls-Royce SMR.
  • A 220 MW SMR should cost £1.1 billion.
  • Whitelee Onshore Wind Farm costs £600 million, but increasing capacity by 37.3% would take that up to £824 million.


However, that's not the end of the story:

  • The SMR will deliver 24/7, low-carbon electricity for 60 years.
  • Whitelee will deliver low-carbon electricity for only 20 years. 
  • A 2nd wind farm would have to be built - that's 40 years. 
  • A 3rd would have to be built before the same amount of electricity was delivered as the single SMR.
    • A single 220 MW SMR delivers as much 24/7 electricity as the intermittent electricity delivered by 3 x 295 wind turbines - that's 885 wind turbines - with an installed capacity of 2,220 MW
    • Equivalent Onshore Wind Farms would 3 x £824 million = £2.472 billion.

    • An Onshore Wind Farms cost 2.25X more to build than a single SMR.
    • An Onshore Wind Farm installation, of 295 wind turbines, occupies 1,338X more area.

    Saturday, 18 February 2017

    Nuclear Power: Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Plant - The Gift That Keeps On Giving

    In 2017 invest £18 billion in Offshore Wind. Between 2019 and 2044, Income received will be:  £57.42 billion.

    In 2017 invest £18 billion in Hinkley Point C. Between 2025 and 2044, Income received will be:  £80.31 billion.

    40% more from Nuclear Power !

    And Then ???
    By the end of HPC's 60 year Design Life - in 2085
    Income received will be:  £300.57 billion.
    Out if that will have to come the £7.2 billion for decommissioning, waste handling and storage.

    That leaves:
         £293.37 billion.

    That's 3.65X more than the income from Offshore Wind.

    Calculations and references below.


    "...The strike price for Hinkley Point C remains set at £92.50/MWh......These figures are in 2012 prices.......The Hinkley Point C contract will last for 35 years, the strike price is fully indexed to inflation through the Consumer Price Index..."
    Hinkley Point C Contract Terms

    "... In summary, the approach to the standard CfD contract terms is as set out 
    in August, with a 15 year contract for renewable technologies, with 
    payments indexed to inflation (CPI)..."
    Table 1 [Page 7]: Strike Prices £/MWh (2012 prices) - Offshore Wind 2018/19:  £140.00
    Renewable Technologies - Key Points on Contract Terms.


    Final Score:
    Chinese Government - 3.65
    UK Government - 1

    Monday, 6 February 2017

    Secrets Revealed About the UK's Biggest Onshore Wind Farm! - Cost

     And The Truth Will Set You Free ! 

    Whitelee 1 & 2 Cost £600 million.
    Whitelee will deliver intermittent electricity every year to 298,837 homes [at 4,266 kWh p.a.] for its 20 year lifespan. That's equivalent to 5,976,740 homes.

    By comparison:
    Page 51, Figure 21. Current Study (adjusted - mature designs)

    A single 440 MW SMR will deliver 24/7 electricity every year to 813,165 homes [at 4,266 kWh p.a.] for its 60 year Design Life. That's equivalent to 48,789,900 homes.
    8 Whitelee-sized wind farms would have to built to deliver the same amount of Intermittent Electricity as the 24/7 Electricity from a single Rolls-Royce 
    440 MW SMR.
    The cost of 8 Whitelee-sized windfarms would be 
    £4,800 million
    A Rolls-Royce 440 MW SMR costs £2,200 million
    For the same capital investment, a single SMR will deliver over 2X more [24/7] Low-Carbon Electricity than the [Intermittent] Low-Carbon Electricity from Onshore Windfarms !!!  
    Hot Off The Press 22/09/2017.

    "...Often, due to the inefficiency of Scotland’s grid system and the remoteness of many wind farms, the energy they generate cannot then be transported elsewhere and practical battery storage systems don’t yet exist.

    In many instances, onshore wind operators will be asked by the National Grid to power down to prevent them producing an excess of energy that cannot be used.

    Each time this happens the wind farm in question will receive a sizable constraint payment through the Renewables Obligation.

    The ScottishPower-Renewables-owned Whitelee wind farm in East Ayrshire has received almost £20million over the last two years.

    If the Whitelee Extension is considered, then the total jumps to £27.8million over 2016/17.

    Since 2010, the Whitelee project as a whole has been paid a total of more than £73million in constraint payments..."

    Friday, 16 December 2016

    Wind Power - Vastly Superior to Nuclear Power In Resource Use: Metal X19.2 Concrete X9.6

    This goes a long way to explaining why the cost of Wind Power Farms, per MWh delivered, is so much greater than a Nuclear Power Plant !

    Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Plant is rated at 3.2 GW, has a 90% Capacity Factor and a Design Life of 60 years.
    It will deliver 1,513.7 TWh of 24/7 electricity.

    UK Wind Turbine Operate at a Capacity Factor of 30.4%

    "...The design life of a good quality modern wind turbine is 20 years. Depending on how windy and turbulent the site is, the turbine could last for 25 years or even longer, though as with anything mechanical, the maintenance costs will increase as it gets older...."

    At a Capacity Factor of 30.4% and an 'Operational Phase' of 25 years, to deliver 1,513.7 TWh of intermittent electricity, the UK would need a Wind Turbine Total Operational Capacity of 22,736.422 MW.

    Metals Use, Hinkley Point C: 141,806 tonne.
    Metals Use UK Wind Power: 2,723,823 tonne [X19.2].

    Concrete Use, Hinkley Point C: 1,022,490 tonne.
    Concrete Use UK Wind Power: 9,844,871 tonne [X9.6].

    A lot of people have fought oppression for the right to have wind turbines, but John Cleese gets right to the heart of the matter at 1:34 on this:

    Friday, 2 December 2016

    Rampion Ramps Up The Cost Of Offshore Wind.

    Everything you need to know about Rampion here:

    Rampion Offshore Wind Farm is rated at 400.2 MW and will cost £1.596 billion [not including decommissioning].

    Rampion will deliver Intermittent Electricity, capable of Intermittently Powering 283,444 homes every year, for its 'Expected Life' of 25 years.
    By contrast, Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Plant will deliver 24/7 Electricity, capable of On-Demand Powering of 6,406,501 homes for its 'Design Life of 60 years.
    A bit of very simple Arithmetic
    6,406,501 [1 Hinkley] ÷ 283,444 [1 Rampion] = 22.6
    We'd need to build 22.6 Rampions once and then a 2nd time and then be 10 years into the 3rd build to deliver the same amount of intermittent electricity as Hinkley's 24/7 electricity !
    That's a factor of 2.4 54 Rampions

    That would cost 54 x £1.596 billion = £86.18 billion
    Hinkley will cost £18.0 billion + £7.3 billion [decommissioning, waste handling and storage]

    22.6 Rampion-Sized Offshore Windfarms 
    Cost 3.4X more than Hinkley
    The area Rampion occupies is 79 sq. km.

    22.6 Rampions, to deliver the same annual amount of [Intermittent] electricity as Hinkley, would occupy an area of 1,785 sq. km

     Rampion is about 6.6 km 'deep' [nearest turbine to furthest turbine from shore]. 22.6 of them x 6.6 km deep would stretch 270 km along the South Coast:
    From Eastbourne to Torquay !!
    Hinkley sits on a site 870 m x 870 m
    [About the size of the letter 'H' in SOUTH DOWNS]

    Monday, 7 November 2016

    14.67% Capacity Factor For Wind Power In China In 2015 !!!!!


    ASIA: REMARKABLE YEAR FOR CHINA For the seventh year in a row, Asia was the world’s largest regional market for new wind power development, with capacity additions totalling nearly 33.9 GW. 

    In terms of annual installations China maintained its leadership position. China added 30.8 GW of new capacity in 2015, once again the highest annual number for any country ever. This is almost twice the 2013 figure, when China installed 16 GW of new capacity. 

    In 2015, wind power generation reached 186.3 TWh, accounting for 3.3% of total electricity generation . This follows a pattern of steady increase in wind based electricity generation despite heavy curtailment. In 2012, wind-generated electricity in China was just over a 100 TWh, accounting for 2% of the country's total electricity output. Wind provided almost 135 TWh of electricity in 2013, contributing 2.6% of the country's total electricity generation . Total wind power generation reached over 153 TWh in 2014, 2.78% of total electricity generation. 

    The Chinese wind market almost doubled its capacity from 75 GW in 2012 to reach[ed] 145 GW by the end of 2015, reinforcing China’s lead in terms of cumulative installed wind power capacity.
    And Here's How It Works Out:

    Yeeaa !! A Global Grid to Transport Clean Energy Around The World !!
    Let's Take Notice of China - 
    They Know How To Do It !!!!!